Town election tension is growing

A large number of ballots remain uncounted in Oakland's special election; Dublin sees a dramatic drop in auto sales revenue; Hayward city employees upset about city manager's return to office decree

☕️MORNING BUZZ

—More than 42,000 ballots remain unprocessed in Oakland’s tightening special mayoral election, a large number of yet to be counted ballots that could aid Barbara Lee’s chances for mounting a comeback against Loren Taylor.

—The Alameda County Registrar of Voters office added roughly 20,000 ballots received to its “voter data” portal on Wednesday morning, boosting turnout to 29.3 percent, or 73,183 ballots returned.

—Later in the day, the registrar’s office added another 22,000 to the total. The latest tranche of ballots, once processed, would push overall turnout to just over 36 percent, which is the high-end of most estimates.

—Higher turnout likely helps Lee, who ended Election Night trailing Taylor by 1,220 first-place votes, and 1,118 votes after ranked choice voting tabulations are applied.

—However, a district-by-district break down of the 20,584 ballots added to the registrar’s voter data portal yesterday morning shows early voting patterns that shaped Taylor’s lead remain intact. At least, for now.

• District 4—5,159 votes (pct. of total vote: 25.06%)

• District 1—4,147 (20.15%)

• District 2—3,248 (15.78%)

• District 6—2,787 (13.54%)

• District 3—2,376 (11.54%)

• District 5—1,475 (7.17%)

• District 7—1,392 (6.76%)

District 4 in the Oakland hills favors Taylor, while District 1 in North Oakland favors Lee. Together, these two districts currently make up 45 percent of returned ballots.

How the additional 22,000 unprocessed ballots break will likely decide the election. If these trends continue it likely means Taylor’s lead will shrink, increasing the likelihood of an extremely close election, but one that still slightly favors Taylor at this point.

The situation is fluid. Vote-by-mail ballots sent on Tuesday have a seven-day window to arrive at the registrar’s office, meaning the number of unprocessed ballot could be even larger.

The registrar’s next election results update is scheduled for Friday.

ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS

MAYOR (FIRST-PLACE VOTES, as of Tuesday)

• Loren Taylor 23,362 votes 48.22%

• Barbara Lee 22,142 45.70% (-1,220 votes)

• Tyron Jordan 741 1.53%

• Mindy Pechenuk 559 1.115%

• Renia Webb 435 0.90%

MAYOR (RANKED CHOICE VOTING, as of Tuesday)

• Loren Taylor 24,347 votes 51.17%

• Barbara Lee 23,229 48.83% (-1,118 votes)

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Editor’s Note: The East Bay Insiders Newsletter is taking a break in observance of Good Friday and the Easter weekend.

There won’t be a newsletter published on Friday morning, but expect a special edition later in the day to update results in Oakland’s special election.

The newsletter will be back on Monday morning. Thank you for reading! Happy Easter!

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