With less than a week before Election Day, voter turnout in Alameda County is paltry
San Leandro's mayoral race is a total three-candidate toss-up
ELECTION 2022
Days until Election Day: 6.
VOTER TURNOUT
—SEND IN THOSE BALLOTS—With just less than a week until Election Day, just 13 percent of vote-by-mail ballots in Alameda County have been returned, as of Wednesday, according to Political Data, Inc., a consulting group that tracks ballot returns across the state.
—For East Bay races that cross over into neighboring counties like the contentious 10th State Senate District contest between Lily Mei and Aisha Wahab, just 18 percent of ballots have been returned in Santa Clara County, which represents a bit less than half of the sprawling district.
—Turnout during the June primary was notably low in Alameda County, just 33 percent casted a ballot, the lowest percentage since 2014. That figure should be a worst-case minimum for turnout this November. Some local politicos predict turnout will ultimately be somewhere in the low-to-mid 40s, possibly over 50 percent.
—This means a significant number of voters are making late decisions in races across the county. Voter procrastination or a decision to wait until the end of the campaign to cast vote may adversely effect campaigns, especially in the open Dem-on-Dem matchups in the 20th Assembly District and 10th State Senate District.
—Both races saw incredible amounts spent about a month ago by Independent Expenditure Committees for and against the quartet of candidates. It’s possible all that money and the trees used for mailers went waste at a time when voters were simply not yet paying attention.
—ENDORSED DEMS PROSPER—We’ve seen a comeback for the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee, at least on the fundraising front this fall. On Tuesday, the local party raised another $13,000. Later in the day, the central committee doled out $51,083 to 21 statewide and local candidates, a state proposition, and a number of local tax measures.
—Top of the list was $10,841 to party-endorsed 10th State Senate District candidate Aisha Wahab and $6,178 to party-endorsed Oakland mayoral candidate Sheng Thao. Both candidates are expected to be in close races next week.
OAKLAND MAYOR
—MORE THAO FALLOUT—Following allegations by a former council aide to Sheng Thao that she was fired her because she didn’t want to work on her boss’s mayoral campaign, comes scrutiny on another Thao aide and a mysterious Twitter account named “Gay Inspector.”
—Oakland mayoral Twitter watchers have long suspected that Brandon Harami, Thao’s longtime aide, had been using the “Gay Inspector” account to anonymously attack her online detractors and to tamp down burgeoning controversies.
—Now online sleuths believe they uncovered evidence that “Gay Inspector” is indeed Harami. Using Harami’s City of Oakland phone number, the sleuths were able to gain access to the account through Twitter’s password recovery function.
—At a time when Thao’s campaign should be making the closing argument for Oakland mayor, the story over the past week has been about alleged corruption and online shenanigans by one of her lieutenants.
20TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT
—RED PILL—You know the election is nearing its conclusion when IEs start photoshopping opponents inside of pills and on barrels of oil.
—Nurses and Educators for a Brighter Future, an IE backed by SEIU California, the California Labor Federation, and California Teachers Association, sent the above mailer to voters in the 20th Assembly District this week. Its asserts candidate Shawn Kumagai flip-flopped on a promise to eschew corporate contributions to his campaign. The messaging has been used several times by IEs against Kumagai.
LIVERMORE MAYOR
—FRIENDS IN HIGH PLACES—Friends Supporting Mony Nop for Mayor of Livermore 2022 is an IE with a name that is a misnomer. There’s only one friend in this IE, San Francisco philanthropist Lyna Lam, who is its sole funder. On Wednesday, Lam added another $60,000 to the IEs coffers.
—She has now given $210,000 toward the effort to elect Mony Nop, a local Realtor who is running against former Livermore Mayor John Marchand. What’s the connection between Lam and Nop? For starters, both are Cambodian refugees who found success in the U.S.
—Lam’s outlay in the Livermore mayoral race makes her the second-largest campaign contributor in the entire East Bay election this fall. Only Jonathan Brooks, a SoCal hedge fund manager with interests in Oakland’s coal terminal who has spent $550,000 on an IE supporting Oakland mayoral candidates Ignacio De La Fuente, has spent more.
BERKELEY
—IT WASN’T ME—Berkeley Councilmember Terry Taplin said on Tuesday that a text message going out to Berkeley voters recently is falsely proffering his endorsement for a Rent Board candidate named Carole Marasovic. Taplin said the text is “100% not me.”
SAN LEANDRO PREVIEW
—PICK ‘EM—San Leandro’s mayoral race appears to be the toss-up of all toss-ups in this fall’s election season. The top three candidates are evenly-matched, strongly-financed, and have differing bases of support. You could make strong arguments for every possible permutation of the final outcome among San Leandro Councilmember Bryan Azevedo, former San Leandro Councilmember Lee Thomas, and first-time candidate Juan Gonzalez.
—Earlier this year, it was assumed Azevedo was the clear frontrunner. But running for mayor in San Leandro is far different than a city council race. When residents were forced to pay attention to Azevedo’s petulant personality, a possible Charter violation, and Hershel Walker-like badgering of the English language, it became his kryptonite.
—Azevedo may still be the frontrunner. One of the wildcards in this race is whether Azevedo nearly two-year campaign for mayor that question is whether his support is mile wide and an inch deep? Does the disaffected San Leandro voter that Azevedo naturally attracts actually cast a vote or do they just like to complain about everything, watch Tucker Carlson, and call it a night?
—Gonzalez is a newcomer to politics, but his wife, Evelyn Gonzalez, serves on the San Leandro school board. Gonzalez is a forensic auditor and he has used his understanding of finance to inform his policies. Gonzalez reminds many of former San Leandro Mayor Stephen Cassidy, who is a supporter and informal advisor. Gonzalez’s grasp of municipal government is clearly evident. He plays the part well. His penchant for comically over-enunciating his words could be a sticking point for voters. It feels contrived and if Gonzalez has been knocking on thousands of doors like he says, the voters’ first-impression may not be positive.
—Thomas appeared to take a little time earlier in the campaign to get started. But over the last six weeks or so, his social media game has improved and the Alameda County Firefighters Union, who backed his campaign, produced a high-quality video on his behalf. Of the trio, Thomas is the candidate backed by landlords. His campaign rhetoric, though, has not been sharply tuned to any stance that might benefit landlords. Receiving contributions from landlords was a major red flag in the city’s 2018 and 2020 elections. You could argue Thomas lost his council seat four-years-ago because of it. But weirdly, in this election, landlords have not been used against him.
—This is a ranked-choice voting race and the third-place finisher, and by some measure, the fourth candidate in this race, Chris Bammer, will likely decide who is able to gain a majority of the vote. You could argue, for example, that Thomas finishes first as much as you could argue that he finishes last. Same goes for Azevedo and Gonzalez.
—The question San Leandro politicos are pondering is which of the three will benefit from ranked-choice voting? If you follow the precepts of ranked-choice voting, it’s supposed to benefit the most moderate candidate and the most likable. That person could be Thomas, who has avoided controversy, while Azevedo may have become a polarizing figure, and Gonzalez has been dogged by some progressives who believe he opposes abortion, and an incident that led to the city’s Historical Society director to abruptly resigning.
—If I were you, don’t bother making a prediction. Just sit back and watch. San Leandro will either have the second-coming of Alameda’s wacky former Mayor Trish Spencer (Azevedo), a virtual second-term for Cassidy (Gonzalez), or the city’s first Black mayor (Thomas).
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