November to remember: East Bay races to watch
Part I: Bauters/Bas; Total Recalls, Five Alameda County cities will feature often disruptive intra-council campaigns for mayor
ELECTION 2024
214 days to Election Day
ALAMEDA COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS - DISTRICT 5
—I already laid out how I think this November runoff between Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunate Bas and Emeryville Councilmember John Bauters will go down. See below:
—But there’s some new angles to explore. At least through the end of June, Bas is going to be preoccupied with Oakland’s massive fiscal year budget shortfall. How Bas and the administration handle potential layoffs and cuts to city services will greatly inform the fall campaign season.
—One nagging question about Bauters early in the campaign was whether he could overcome disadvantages that come from representing a small city—name I.D., connections to big money. Perhaps this is actually a good thing? In Emeryville, Bauters will not face the types of controversies that Bas is likely to face in big-city Oakland.
—Money and Independent Expenditure Committees will likely loom large in this race. Expect IEs to hit Bas on Oakland’s chronic problems of homelessness and general mayhem. Expect union-backed IEs to hit Bauters on some of his votes in Emeryville, including one that involved the city’s minimum wage.
TOTAL RECALLS
—There are currently five recalls on the table, but only two have an election date set. There’s a possibility the other three could wind up consolidated with the November General Election.
—Sunol Glen Unified School District voters will decide on July 2 whether to recall trustees Ryan Jergensen and Linda Hurley. The likelihood that both get recalled is high. If anything because only a few hundred votes are needed to gain a majority.
—The status of Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price’s recall is currently in a waiting pattern. But word about whether the recall campaign secured at least 73,195 valid signatures could come by the end of next week. Most political observers believe Price will be ousted if a recall election is held. But if there is an election, it’s unknown when it might happen, especially if Price chooses to use the courts to slow down the process.
—The campaign seeking to recall Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao said this week that they have secured half of the 25,000 signatures needed for a recall of the second-year mayor. They are so confident about their pace of work that they are aiming for turning in petitions sometime in May. Here’s another dose of conventional wisdom being offered by insiders: If Price gets recalled, so does Thao.
—The attempt to recall first-term state Sen. Aisha Wahab has received very little attention, but the campaign behind the effort keeps trudging on. Two weeks ago, they cobbled together nearly $25,000 in contributions. The group needs more than 45,000 valid signatures to qualify for a recall election. This is a possibility, but time is running out. Nevertheless, many equate this effort to the unsuccessful recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021. There’s not much meat to their complaints other than Wahab tried to pass a anti-caste bill that conservative Indo Americans in Fremont and Santa Clara County didn’t like.
MAYORAL MUDFIGHTS
—Few things are more disruptive for a city council than an open mayoral seat. Why? Because most of the councilmembers have spent the last 2-4 years coveting the mayor’s office and are now ready to prove their mettle.
—There are four open mayoral seats on the ballot in the East Bay this fall, and three involving incumbents (two currently without an opponent). Three feature intra-council matchups. Two include current and former councilmembers.
Berkeley - Councilmember Sophie Hahn, former Councilmember Kate Harrison.
—This is the marquee mayoral contest in the county. Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin is running for the State Senate. At the start of the year, it appeared that three sitting councilmembers would be running for mayor.
—Sophie Hahn joined the race. But now-former Councilmember Rigel Robinson resigned from the council while also ending his mayoral campaign. Kate Harrison also resigned shortly after, but is still running for mayor.
—The tumult at Berkeley City Council meetings since last November has been fueled by the Israel-Hamas war and have little to do with city government, but the issue could loom large in as much as how the candidate hope to restore order and civility.
—Questions about Harrison’s decision to abruptly quitting the council, while keeping her mayoral campaign intact will likely be raised, especially since her parting words described a “broken” city government.
—Others that have filed an intent to run: Aiden Hill, Adena Ishii, Eric Purdy.
Dublin - Councilmembers Jean Josey, Sherry Hu
—Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez is termed out of office and is planning a run for the BART Board of Directors in District 5 (More on that in a second.)
—Dublin has had a string of pretty good mayors recently—Tim Sbranti, David Haubert, and now Hernandez.
—Current Councilmembers Jean Josey and Sherry Hu will have a high bar to clear. Josey may have a leg up on institutional support in the area and the party, but Dublin’s demographics could aid Hu’s effort.
—This race could be shaken up by outside forces. If the BART Board decides to make an appointment to replace Board Director John McPartland, who resigned last week, Hernandez could be an applicant.
—If Hernandez were to snag the BART appointment, then who becomes Dublin’s mayor? Probably not Josey or Hu, but one of the two remaining councilmembers. What if the appointed member realizes the quasi-incumbency of the appointed mayoral position gives him an electoral advantage in November and he also runs?
Fremont
—The second-largest city in Fremont will have a new mayor this fall and the race features two candidates representing polar-opposite visions for the city.
—Councilmember Raj Salwan and Vinnie Bacon, a former councilmember might be considered rivals. If not now, then likely by the end of what could be a hard-fought campaign.
—Salwan is labor-friendly and amenable to business interests. He’s also extremely cautious, so don’t expect many unforced errors. Bacon, on the other hand, has a long history for being a contrarian. He’s also good at stoking Fremonters inner-anxieties surrounding development and its cousin, traffic congestion.
—Fremont has some issues to tend to, including homelessness, perceptions that crime is on the rise, and overriding questions about whether the city should strive to make itself more of a regional leader amid Oakland’s precipitous demise.
—The Alameda County Democratic Party’s endorsement will be aggressively sought by both. Each have strong ties to party activists, although, at the moment, Salwan might be stronger.
Pleasanton
—This one will be fun. Unlike the other East Bay mayoral contests, the race for Pleasanton mayor this fall involves a somewhat friendly rivalry between incumbent Mayor Karla Brown and Councilmember Jack Balch.
—Over the past year, there has been several instances of heated give-and-take and backbiting between these two, which should make for an interesting campaign.
—In addition, each has differing visions for Pleasanton. Issues such as the city’s water supply being contaminated with PFAS, increased costs for pumping in water from outside sources, and a potential half-cent sales tax measure will be fodder for each candidate.
Union City
—Two long-time Union City councilmembers are seeking to replace Mayor Carol Dutra-Vernacci, herself a long-time fixture at City Hall.
—This matchup, as it currently stands, could be viewed as a proxy battle between continuing Dutra-Vernacci’s policies and a push by her council rivals to grab control of the mayor’s office.
—Duncan is mostly aligned with Dutra-Vernacci. Singh aligns with the council’s moderate conservatives that include Dutra-Vernacci rival, Councilmember Jaime Patiño.
Livermore and Newark
—Livermore Mayor John Marchand and Newark Mayor Michael Hannon are up for re-election. As of this week, no other candidate has filed an intent to run for either office.
Monday—East Bay Races To Watch continues with three Oakland City Council matchups, the BART Board’s new direction, and the 7th State Senate race.
