Reading the tea leaves
ELECTION 2024: 7th State Senate roundup: head-scratcher campaign mailer, landlords’ odd push for staunch rent control candidate; a pledge broken; Supervisor Miley’s unorthodox 32-page mailer.
ELECTION 2024
15 days to Primary Day
—PRICE PROSPECTUS—Public safety and DA Pamela Price hover over so many primary elections in the East Bay. You can argue the issues are one in the same, and that’s Price’s problem as recall petitions are being prepared for the Alameda County registrar’s perusal in coming weeks.
—Assuming the registrar validates the required 73,195 signatures sometime next month, and the Board of Supervisors call a special election, the competitive Alameda County Board of Supervisors primary race in District 5 could be a harbinger of Price’s political fate.
—The primary to replace Supervisor Keith Carson has a unique feature. It’s the only one that includes a candidate, Chris Moore, who is clearly in favor of recalling Price.
WORST SCENARIO
If Moore finishes in the top two and advances to a November runoff, or a strong third place, it’s probably curtains for Price if the recall questions heads to a special election. Moore has been vociferous in linking diminished public safety with Price’s handling of the DA’s office. If voters buy what Moore is selling it means the furor fueling the Price recall is very real.
BEST SCENARIO
The rest of the District 5 candidates have not issued support for Price, but oppose the recall in general terms. A good sign for Price would be Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas finishing in the top two. Bas has skillfully avoided talking about public safety throughout the campaign, as any Oakland candidate would be wise to do based on the city’s crime wave.
A poor result for Moore would also be a positive for Price. Such a development would suggest voters are not necessarily linking Price to diminished public safety, even though the issue remains paramount in their minds.
—PRICE ON THE BALLOT—Price is seeking re-election this March for one of 10 seats on the Alameda County Democratic Central Committee in the 18th Assembly District. In 2020, Price was the top vote-getter.
—If Price can finish in the top 10 of 28 candidates is one data point that could give an indication about how the public feels about her. If there’s an area that can be considered a Price stronghold, it’s this district, which includes Oakland and Berkeley.
—You could look at Price’s central committee election as an opinion poll, but there’s other factors inherent with this unusual race.
—Unfortunately, central committee races are crapshoots more likely decided by ballot placement than anything else. A candidate’s placement on the ballot is determined by a random alphabetical lottery. Candidates listed at the top usually win these races.
—Price is not within the top 10 names on the ballot, but she’s listed at the top half of two columns on the ballot, which is a stroke of luck.
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7TH STATE SENATE DISTRICT
—FALSE EQUIVALENCY—A mailer sent last week by Kathyrn Lybarger’s campaign for the 7th State Senate District describes equivalence between Civil Rights activists in the 1960s and her experience being arrested while fighting for marriage equality.
—The mailer features the involvement of Lybarger’s father-in-law in the “Freedom Riders” civil rights movement and his arrest.
—The mailer, which noticeably tucks Lybarger’s name in a field of text, attempts to make a connection to her activism against Proposition 8, which sought to ban same-sex marriage in California.
—Notably, the mailer arrived in mailboxes the same week that advocates celebrated the 20th anniversary of the first same-sex marriages in California.
—STRANGE BEDFELLOWS—Why is an independent expenditure committee heavily funded by the California Apartment Association sending a mailer in support of one of the East Bay’s most ardent supporters of rental control?
—Fighting for Our Future spent $56,340 over the weekend to support the candidacy of Jovanka Beckles in the 7th State Senate District. As a former Richmond councilmember, Beckles led the effort to enact rent control in that city.
—The California Building Industry Association also funded the same IE. Beckles’ rhetoric on the campaign trail also doesn’t align with builders. She believes the state cannot simply build itself out of the housing crisis.
—So, what might be going on here? As the part of the expenditure, Fighting for Our Future, spent $25,000 for polling. Perhaps the numbers revealed a candidate’s weakness?
—The curious mailer could be a move by the IE to boost Beckles, who has struggled to raise money, into the top two, and bump someone like Kathryn Lybarger, the well-financed, but unknown labor candidate, out out of contention.
—Such a scenario would likely benefit Jesse Arreguin, the field’s top fundraiser and potential front runner.
—GASLIGHTING—Last year, 7th State Senate District candidate Jesse Arreguin signed the well-publicized “No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge.” Several other East Bay elected officials and candidates did the same.
—But Arreguin appears to have broken the pledge when his campaign accepted a maxed-out $5,500 contribution from PG&E and Affiliated Entities on Dec. 21, according to finance records.
—A notable part of Arreguin’s resume is legislation in Berkeley to ban natural gas hook-ups in new housing units.
—20th District Assemblymember Liz Ortega-Toro received a $1,500 contribution from PG&E earlier this month, but she has not signed the pledge, according to the group’s website.
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS - DISTRICT 4
—NATE’S LIFE STORY—A 32-page campaign booklet has created some buzz in the winner-take-all District 4 supervisorial race.
—Click here to read Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley’s biographical treatise sent to voters earlier this month.
—The booklet is unorthodox and likely expensive. Miley has made his re-election campaign all about his vast experience in office. In this light, the booklet seems like a good idea. That is, if anyone bothered reading it?
QUOTABLE
“I’ll take the individual who’s 81 over the guy who has 91 felony counts.”
—Rep. Eric Swalwell on MSNBC last Saturday addressing questions about President Joe Biden’s age.
U.S. SENATE
—CHRONIC PROBLEMS—The largest newspaper in the Bay Area endorsed Barbara Lee’s Democratic opponent Katie Porter.
—The San Francisco Chronicle wrote favorably about Lee’s candidacy, but their decision to back Porter was based on an assumption the Southern California congressmember could accomplish more in a Republican-controlled Senate.
—WRITING ON THE WALL—South Bay Rep. Ro Khanna, a co-chair for Barbara Lee’s Senate campaign appears to be signaling what is becoming increasingly likely: Lee isn’t going to do well in the March Primary.
—Khanna told CalMatters that Lee isn’t doing better in the polls because she doesn’t have any money.
—It’s a bit of a “Duh!” comment since fundraising has long been a weak spot for Lee that has never been exploited after more than 20 years of facing little electoral opposition.
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
—MONEYBALL—Form 497 large campaign contributions filed on Feb. 16-18.
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—David Haubert (District 1), Debbi Del Conte of Dublin, $1,000; Tom Del Conte of Dublin, $1,000. TOTAL: $2,000.
—Nate Miley (District 4), Alco Iron & Metal Company, $1,500. TOTAL: $1,500.
—John Bauters (District 5), Canntinas Group, Inc., $10,000; William C. Skinnerbrewer of Carmichael, Calif., $5,000; Daniel Kang of Rancho Murieta, Calif., $5,000; Daryoush Azimi of Sacramento, $3,000; Hernandez for Dublin Mayor 2022, $1,000. TOTAL: $24,000.
—Nikki Fortunato Bas (District 5), Dignity CA Service Employees International Union SEIU Local 2015, $10,000; Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1555, $5,000. TOTAL: $15,000.
—Ben Bartlett (District 5), Alvin Boutte of Chicago, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
BOARD OF EDUCATION
—Angela Normand (Area 2), New Haven Teachers Association Committee for School Improvement, $1,000. TOTAL: $1,000.
—Guadalupe Angulo (Area 5), Liz Ortega-Toro for Assembly 2024, $1,500. TOTAL: $1,500.
ALAMEDA
—Alameda Forward (Measure E - Alameda USD parcel tax), Sprinkler Fitters & Apprentices Local 483 PAC, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
SAN LEANDRO
—Dylan Boldt (City Council, District 6), United Association Political Action Fund, $5,000. TOTAL: $5,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE ASSEMBLY
—Buffy Wicks (14th Assembly District), California Waste Haulers Council PAC, $3,000; Los Angeles County Waste Management Association PAC, $2,500; Edison International and Affiliated Entities, $2,000. TOTAL: $2,000.
—Mia Bonta (18th Assembly District), California Association of Health Plans PAC, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
—Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (16th Assembly District), California Waste Haulers Council PAC, $2,500; Associated General Contractors PAC, $1,500. TOTAL: $3,500.
—Alex Lee (24th Assembly District), Fremont Unified District Teachers Association PAC, $2,500. TOTAL: $2,500.
STATE SENATE
—Jesse Arreguin (7th Senate District), CA Latino PAC, $5,500; Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, Transportation Workers Local Union 105 Political Education Fund, $5,500; Davita, $5,500; Pechanga Band of Indians, $3,000; 21st Century Alliance Good Government PAC, $1,000; Pacific Merchant Shipping Association PAC, $1,000. TOTAL: $16,000.
—Tim Grayson (9th Senate District), Los Angeles Police Protective League PAC Small Contributor Committee, $7,000; DoorDash, Inc., $2,500; Pacific Merchant Shipping Association PAC, $1,000. TOTAL: $10,500.
—Marisol Rubio (9th Senate District), Jane Fonda Climate Fund, $4,000. TOTAL: $4,000.
—Nurses and Educators Supporting McNerney for Senate 2024 Sponsored by Labor, Consumer and Reproductive Health Organizations (5th Senate District), SEIU Local 1021 Candidate PAC, $50,000. TOTAL: $50,000.
—Carlos Villapudua (5th Senate District), The Spanos Corporation, $5,500; California Business Properties Association PAC, $5,500; KPMG LLP, $3,000; Sheet Metal Workers Local Union 104 Political Committee, $2,500; San Leandro Trailer Park LLC, $2,500; Holman Investors LLC, $2,500; California Dairies Inc., $2,500; California Cattlemen's Association PAC, $2,500; Trinity Development & Construction Inc., $2,500; Rayb Development LLC, $2,500; William Filos of Stockton, $2,500; Valley Pacific Petroleum Services Inc., $2,000; Alvin Cortopassi of Linden, $1,000; Hakeem Ellis & Marengo, $1,000; William K. Leach of Lodi, $1,000; John R. Vera of Stockton, $1,000. TOTAL: $39,500.
—Jerry McNerney (5th Senate District), Steamfitters Local 342 PAC, $5,500; 314 Action Victory Fund, $2,500. TOTAL: $8,000.
—IE SPENDING—Form 496 Independent Expenditure Committee (IE) spending in support and opposing candidates or ballot measures filed on Feb. 16-18.
ALAMEDA COUNTY
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
—Nate Miley (District 4), Preserving Agriculture in Alameda County. SUPPORT (Online Ads—$11,000). TOTAL: $11,000.
STATE LEGISLATURE
STATE SENATE
—Carlos Villapudua (5th District), Nurses and Educators Supporting McNerney for Senate 2024 Sponsored by Labor, Consumer and Reproductive Health Organizations. OPPOSE (Television & Video Ads—$254,556, ). TOTAL: $254,556.
—Jerry McNerney (5th District), Nurses and Educators Supporting McNerney for Senate 2024 Sponsored by Labor, Consumer and Reproductive Health Organizations. SUPPORT (Television & Video Ads—$44,921.). TOTAL: $44,921.
—Jesse Arreguin (7th District), JobsPAC. SUPPORT (Mailer—$85,156). TOTAL: $85,156.
—Jovanka Beckles (7th District), Fighting for Our Future. SUPPORT (Literature—$31,340, Polling—$25,000, ). TOTAL: $56,340.
—Tim Grayson (9th District), California Dental Association Independent Expenditure PAC. SUPPORT (Literature—$42,250). TOTAL: $42,250.
